Guatemala will hold presidential, congressional, and municipal elections on Sunday, June 25. The outgoing administration, led by President Alejandro Giammattei, has been marked by corruption scandals, the dismantling of judicial and accountability systems, the criminal prosecution of judges, prosecutors, and journalists, and the ever-increasing criminalization of land defenders and entire Indigenous communities. With Guatemalan elections on the horizon, many fear a continuation of the antidemocratic trends of the last few years.

Arbitrary decisions about who can run (and who can’t) harm election integrity

Already, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), one of several state institutions tasked with ensuring electoral legitimacy despite their own compromised credibility, has taken a series of arbitrary actions that threaten free and fair Guatemalan elections. Key among these has been the decision to include constitutionally-prohibited candidates in the elections, while preventing others from running on spurious grounds.

Who’s left out?

In perhaps the most glaring example, the TSE excluded Movement for the People’s Liberation (Movimiento para la Liberación de los Pueblos, MLP) presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Thelma Cabrera and Jordán Rodas. As an Indigenous Maya Mam land defender, Cabrera has represented a major challenge to the political elite’s control. Her 2019 grassroots-supported presidential campaign led her to fourth place in the last round of elections.

Likewise, Rodás was a thorn in the side of human rights abusers and corrupt officials throughout his tenure as Human Rights Ombudsman. Just one day after Rodas declared his candidacy, Alejandro Córdova, the current head of the now co-opted Human Rights Ombudsman’s office filed a highly questionable criminal complaint against him. The TSE used that complaint as grounds to exclude Rodás, and therefore the MLP, from the presidential/vice-presidential elections. Cabrera and Rodás appealed the TSE’s decision to the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ). However, the CSJ rejected the MLP’s appeal on April 14, ensuring their exclusion.

Current congress member Aldo Dávila (Voluntad, Oportunidad y Solidaridad, VOS) may also be barred from seeking reelection. The TSE revoked his candidacy due to different judicial processes against Dávila: he is facing more than 40 complaints, seven of which were made by the current administration. Dávila says the charges resulted from his efforts to seek accountability for acts of corruption. He will continue to fight in the courts to remain a candidate.

Who’s in?

While the TSE has systematically excluded grassroots-supported, anti-corruption candidates (and some traditional rightwing candidates) on questionable grounds, it has allowed the presidential and vice presidential bids of Zury Ríos (Valor-Unionista) and Romeo Estuardo Guerra Lemus (UNE) to move forward. This is despite constitutional restrictions on Ríos’ candidacy. Zury Ríos is the daughter of ex-military dictator and genocidaire, José Efraín Ríos Montt. The constitution bans close family members of coup organizers from running for office. In past Guatemalan elections, the TSE prevented Ríos from running for this very reason.

The constitution also places limits on the political candidacies of religious leaders. Guerra is the pastor of the Zion Christian Church. Nonetheless, the TSE allowed him to register as the vice-presidential candidate on Sandra Torres’ UNE ticket.

While Ríos and Torres are the current front runners, a host of hard-right candidates are also vying for the presidency. This list includes Luis Lam, who was a legal and military advisor and ex-ambassador to the UN under Jimmy Morales. Lam claims responsibility for the legal campaign to oust the CICIG from Guatemala. He is currently serving as a defense lawyer for one of the alleged perpetrators of the Rancho Bejuco massacre. Another candidate, Sammy Morales, is the brother of ex-president Jimmy Morales. During his brother’s presidency, Sammy Morales was accused of fraud and money laundering; he was eventually absolved, just two weeks after the Morales administration succeeded in removing CICIG from the country.