On January 17th, chaos erupted in Guatemala’s prison system when members of the Barrio 18 gang rioted in three different prisons (Renovación I, Fraijanes 2 and el Preventivo de la Zona 18) and took 46 people hostage. Prison authorities and police were eventually able to regain control of the situation but the Barrio 18 gang retaliated by attacking police stations across Guatemala City, killing a total of 10 police officers over the weekend.

As a result, President Bernardo Arévalo issued a state of emergency lasting for 30 days as authorities attempt to stabilize the country. As concerning as this news is for the safety of those who live in Guatemala, it’s important to dig deeper to understand the causes of this violence and the reasons why it’s happening precisely at this moment. To do that, understanding the broader context surrounding the players involved in this violence is required.

First and foremost is Aldo Dupé Ochoa Mejía aka “El Lobo.” He’s the highest ranking member and leader of the Barrio 18 gang. In various news reports, we saw images of the national police carrying him in handcuffs with blood stains on his shirt and face, demonstrating the violence used by authorities to take control of the situation within the prisons. He’s an important piece of this puzzle because he’s married to María Marta Castañeda Torres, the niece of ex-presidential candidate and former first lady of Guatemala, Sandra Torres, who leads the UNE Party in Guatemala. Torres’ reputation in Guatemala is abysmal at best. She has tried time and again to become the President of Guatemala, despite being surrounded by accusations of connections to criminal organizations, corruption, and general distrust by the Guatemalan population. The important takeaway here is the access to key political and economic powers “El Lobo” gained from marrying Castañeda Torres, enabling him to strategically move pieces for the Barrio 18 gang.

So how are these three people connected to this specific instance? First, the riots started after a court in Guatemala rejected Castañeda Torres’ request to plead guilty for encubrimiento propio (concealment) for the murder of Byron Lima Oliva. By rejecting this request, her case will continue forward with more severe charges, depriving her of liberty for a potentially longer period of time. Second, Sandra Torres was one of the first and most vocal people to blame the government for not having control over the situation in the prisons and on the streets. She was not alone in voicing this opinion; many other potential presidential candidates ,including Carlos Pineda and Zury Ríos, made the same criticisms. During the riots, prisoners went as far as calling for the President’s resignation, signalling to the broader public that there were clear political motivations behind these riots and the escalation of violence.

Lastly, it’s important to note the role of the Attorney General, Consuelo Porras and the Public Prosecutors Office (MP). 2026 is a decisive year for Guatemala as the judicial system will face a historic overlapping of changes within the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court of Elections, and the MP’s Office, among others. Most notable is that Porras’ term is set to come to an end, meaning a new attorney general will take over. But this presents a grave risk and danger to powerful interest groups linked to the oligarchic elites that coordinate directly with criminal organizations in Guatemala. For example, with a new attorney general, “El Lobo”, his wife, and Sandra Torres may not have the same protections they enjoy now with Consuelo Porras in office, and they are just the tip of the iceberg.

For this reason, powerful political and economic actors needed these riots and the instability they brought to try to detract from the judicial system renovation process that could potentially injure these vast networks of criminal organizations. Yet at the same time, it places the Arévalo government in a difficult position. If they do nothing, it’s easy to blame the government for being weak and incapable. But if the government reacts with force and aggression, it’s equally easy to blame them for overstepping boundaries and calling for the President’s resignation.

To add insult to injury, the MP decided not to add murder charges to one gang member who killed two police officers, accusing him instead of only illegally possessing firearms with no connection to the death of the police officers. While this doesn’t come as a surprise given the corrupt nature of the MP and Porras’ ties to criminal organizations, it remains a complete disgrace to political prisoners like Luis Pacheco and Hector Chaclán who are being accused of terrorism for defending democracy during the historic 2023 resistance. At this point, the MP isn’t even trying to hide or disguise its corruption; it’s leaning into it.

As the state of emergency and its aftermath continue, regular Guatemala people continue with their lives too. There is growing concern as to how the rest of this year will play out given the amount of strings that the Pact of the Corrupt, in conjunction with criminal organizations, are pulling to continue to impede the justice process from moving forward. As we know, all of this occurs with great cost to human lives.

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